Although this article was written especially for my specialization, UK All Weather horse racing courses, I am sure that it is application may be used at other race courses.

I hope this information will offer a various stance and method as well as highlighting inadequacies in how we consider and measure a draw bias.

The racecourses with draw biases are well documented and attempts are made to unravel how a race will probably unfold based upon statistical analysis of stall numbers. This information in isolation is more likely to muddy the waters than provide a definitive crystal clear answer.

Recent articles I have written on the subject highlighted the need to know the calibre of horse that went into the stall prior to we are really capable of taking measurement.

In previous examples I sited a scenario where during a period of time strongly fancied horses appeared in unfavourable stalls and continued to win. Against poor opposition, this could give rather a skewed take on the real draw bias. Equally overturn, where poor horses are housed with what appear to be unfavourable stalls will again dilute the accuracy associated with a analysis.

Measuring the caliber of horse moving in to some stall would indeed be a major improvement on blindly accepting a runner's to winner's ratio for every stall the indicates utilized in attempting to measure high quality of horse will be contentious. Even though theory is sound, unless we can make sure the integrity from the finish product time and effort will be wasted.

My own stance has also managed to move on concerning each cause and effect.

I'll ignore that people all accept that a variety should be produced prior to considering the draw and not as a result of the draw. The real expected outcomes are in reality a product of the operating type of our selection and its opponents.

For example, a horse drawn 10,11,12,13 or 14 at any of the four All Weather courses in the united kingdom would be considered disadvantaged by varying degrees dependant on distance. Would we still feel disadvantaged if the horse's operating style ended up being to take place up? I would suggest not. Alternatively, when the horse were built with a prominent running style, the effect of the draw could be decided by the operating type of those to its inside. The greater prominent runners, the more difficult it will likely be for the horse to adopt its usual running style with out expending a great deal of power.

This could never be an exact science as trainers chop and alter the tactics on horses, but you will discover that in most races most horses will adopt their usual operating styles. Equipped with the running style of each horse, we are able to paint a picture of the degree our horse may be disadvantaged.

The method I have devised like a possible solution and to provide a definitive take on whether a variety will probably be penalised through the draw is to apportion points to each horse

Within the example you will find there's 7 furlong handicap at Southwell using the draw to the left of each horse's name followed by my speed figures. To the right of the horse's name we now have our draw data.